Monday, September 15, 2008

IT in the next Five years

I saw this post is important as it my first post, Although it's not new subject but still important; The information in this post is gathered from published blog on Techrepublic and some web sites all reference mentioned at the end.

This post is demonstrating expert opinions and my opinion through my experience in the ME about how Information Technology will focus on in the next five years, I picked 5 points only.

  1. Mac will double its market share


Gartner says: “By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in computers.

Jason Hiner: For Mac, doubling its market share would still not put it anywhere near equal footing with Windows. However, Mac sales finished strongly in 2007 to up its market share to 7.3%, so doubling its share to 15% would certainly make it more viable than ever as a Windows alternative and niche OS.

My word: Although US & EU is hot spot for technology, but Mac hasn’t side-glance to it self in the business in ME yet, But in entertaining Mac wins especially with iPods.

Also ME market will effect the sales percentage but not with a big number.

Facts : July 21, 2008—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2008 third quarter ended June 28, 2008. The Company posted revenue of $7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 34.8 percent, down from 36.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 42 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple shipped 2,496,000 Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing 41 percent unit growth and 43 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,011,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 12 percent unit growth and seven percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone™ units sold were 717,000 compared to 270,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

2. Half of business travelers won’t take their laptops


Gartner says: “By 2012, 50 percent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favor of other devices.”

“Vendors are developing solutions to address these concerns: new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. There is also a new class of applications: portable personality that encapsulates a user’s preferred work environment, enabling the user to recreate that environment across multiple locations or systems.”

Jason Hiner: This prediction may seem a little radical—especially since I don’t actually know any business travelers or IT professionals who currently travel without their laptops.

My Word: As both professionals state, I insure that started already, Some organizations now providing pocketable devices to there IT Pros instead of Laptop e.g Iphones, Imates, HTCs, blackberrys .. etc.

Facts: In the first half of 2007, 34.6 million Symbian OS-powered smartphones were shipped. So we're up to roughly 70 million a year, out of around a billion 'phones' sold per year. So 7% of all phones are powered by Symbian OS. And, interestingly, worldwide sales of desktop and laptop PCs aren't much higher and are set to be overtaken - so the smartphone will become the dominant computing form factor in the next year.

Smartphones users Statistics:

Q1 2008 Q1 2007
Total 9.9% 4.8%
Male 12.2% 6.1%
Female 7.8% 3.4%

3. Open source will penetrate 80% of enterprise software


Gartner says: “By 2012, 80 percent of all commercial software will include elements of open source technology. Many open source technologies are mature, stable, and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage.”

Jason Hiner: I’m puzzled about what Gartner is trying to say here. Is it saying that open source components and code snippets will eke their way into the development of major software applications? If so, I’d say, “So what?” That’s been happening for years and will continue. It’s not really an issue of some companies jumping on that bandwagon and others consciously avoiding it, so I don’t think there are any opportunities for competitive advantage here.

MY word: I strongly agree with the 80% part, BUT the competitive part I agree with Mr. Jason.

4. A third of all software purchased will be by subscription

Gartner says: “By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license. With software as a service (SaaS), the user organization pays for software services in proportion to use. This is fundamentally different from the fixed-price perpetual license of the traditional on-premises technology. Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years.”

Jason Hiner: To be honest, 33% maybe actually be a little low, at least for new sales on the enterprise side. I think more and more vendors are going to want to deliver software via subscription contracts that guarantee recurring revenue, while businesses want to minimize handing out big chunks of cash for upgrades. Those two forces are simultaneously moving the two sides toward the subscription model for financial reasons. In terms of technology, SaaS delivers the portability of apps across multiple platforms, and the demand for that will certainly intensify over the next five years.

My Word: It’s true by observing today’s business; most of vendors are offering services now.

Facts: "The worldwide software-as-a-service (SaaS) market reached $6.3 billion in 2006 and is forecast to grow to $19.3 billion by year-end 2011, according to Gartner. SaaS is hosted software based on a single set of common code and data definitions that are consumed in a one-to-many model by all contracted customers, at any time, on a pay-for-use basis, or as a subscription based on usage metrics."

5. Many new businesses will buy IT infrastructure as a service

Gartner says: “By 2011, early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and instead purchase 40 percent of their IT infrastructure as a service. Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. Enterprises believe that as service oriented architecture (SOA) becomes common, 'cloud computing' will take off, thus untying applications from specific infrastructure. This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional 'lock-in' with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers. It means that IT buyers should strengthen their purchasing and sourcing departments to evaluate offerings. They will have to develop and use new criteria for evaluation and selection and phase out traditional criteria.”

Jason Hiner: I like to call this phenomenon “Datacenter-as-a-Service” (DaaS), and I strongly believe that we are in the midst of a major shift to this model. Big service companies like IBM, Hewlett-Packard, and Verizon Business already allow you to essentially outsource your datacenter to them. With scale, these companies can provide a level of redundancy and management that are unattainable for small and medium businesses to do on their own at the same price. For large companies, they can offer the opportunity to outsource (locally) a service that is not a core competency.

My Word: Seems like headache free and low in cost somehow, but there is still some organizations in ME like to manage it’s data center for many reasons security is number one on the list.


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